Showing posts with label BJP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BJP. Show all posts

Sunday, September 24, 2023

India's Techade: Nalin Mehta looks at the Digital Revolution in India

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books



India's Techade: Digital Revolution and Change in the World's Largest Democracy

Nalin Mehta
Westland, 2023

Nalin Mehta is a well known academic and political observer and is the author of the well regarded massive tome on the New BJP. This book demolished the Christopher Jafferlot and his acolytes who see in the rise of the BJP something that only the deluded overeducated white men can see, a "fascist" "high caste" "Hindu Nationalist" political organization. Of course this narrative is promoted by those fed and battened in the stables of George Soros and his merry men.  Nalin Mehta has decisively shown that the electoral base of the BJP is OBC and SC, ST identity groups. The present book is obviously timed to set the narrative for the 2024 General Elections.

Nalin Mehta has drawn extensively from open source Government data to show that the Digital Revolution initiated by the UPA and further extended and elaborated by the Narendra Modi Government has transformed the face of Indian society and therefore politics. The UNIQUE IDENTIFICATION based on the Aadhar scheme has given a unique digital identity to the citizens which in turn has created the foundation for inclusive banking and Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT). This digital marker coupled with GIS enabled data tracking and mapping has cut administrative costs and has reduced corruption, the bane of Indian public administration so far. 

Several of the socially and economically transformative schemes of the Modi Government are driven by the digital infrastructure that has been erected. The Unified Payment Interface (UPI) is is now global and is competing with established platforms like Visa and Master Card. Demonetization was aimed at eradicating Black Money that had assumed alarming proportions to the tune of nearly 60% of the Gross Domestic Product and terror funding was taking place through the hoarded black economy. Narendra Modi decided to attack both and the master stroke was the sudden demonetization of high value notes. Of course, the those affected by the sudden  move were critical and the Congress Party exposed itself when it came out against what their presiding deity, Rahul Gandhi called a "jumla". The introduction of digital modes of finance has certainly helped create a better environment for business and investment. FinTech the backbone of Digital Finance infrastructure  in India is also creating interest  in parts of Asia and Africa. 

The months of COVID lockdown saw the economy of India collapse and Indiam journalists taking money from  white propaganda 
outlets like New York Times and Washington Post went to town defaming India and its efforts to fight the Chinese created pandemic. One female reporter even used drone footage of burning pyres to earn money from the white propaganda houses. However, Digital India framework provided a reliable means of tracking the clusters of disease and helped to track down contacts. The result was that India had a reliable and efficient system of monitoring the pandemic. The ease with which the COVID vaccinations were administered and the digital authentication in the form of an e-certificate was a marvel of ingenuity, 

Parts of the book  read, unfortunately, like an election manifesto. And that is truly an important aspect as the Digital Revolution has muted the identity politics that drive Indian elections. The class of Labharathis or beneficiaries of the various schemes rolled out by the Government of India under Shri Narendra Modi will propel the BJP towards a 352 to 358 seats in the Lok Sabha. Unfortunately for the Opposition the OBC and SC ST vote banks are now solidly in the BJP bailiwick. 

I enjoyed reading this book. Though I would have brought in the political dimensions of the Digital Revolution more clearly as that was the real intent behind all these ground breaking innovations.

Wednesday, November 23, 2022

SALVATORE BABONES AND THE DEFENSE OF INDIA, INDIAN DEMOCRACY AND CIVILIZATION; AN ESSAY

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Dr Salvatore Babones
  Dr Salvatore Babones,a Sociologist trained in the John Hopkins University and now an Associate Professor of Sociology in Sydney University, Australia, has kicked up a huge storm by coming out in defense  of India, with all guns blazing. While there is a sharp polemical streak in his popular writings, Dr Babones as a Sociologist he is essentially a sympathizer  of the Left with a bias towards World Systems approach pioneered by Immanuel Wallerstein. Therefore, he does not take the received discourse at its face value. He excavates the evidence and vivisects te data for possible errors and inconsistencies. Nothing remarkable about the method as Historians have been doing just that for over 2000 years, What is new and novel is the ease with which Dr Babones is able to deconstruct the hegemonic discourse from Western Capitals and of course, his own homeland, the USA. 

Dr Salvatore Babones knows how to handle Big Data and subject them to critical scrutiny. All the Data that the ranking agencies lie V-DEM, Freedom House, and the Economist deploy in their Reports are all available in public domain and are generated by the Government of India through its own specialised Statistical wings like the National Sample Survey, Niti Ayog, Reserve Bank of India, and of course, Crime Statistics compiled by the Ministry of Home Affairs. The Ranking Agencies do not contest the validity of the Data and when China provides falsified and inaccurate data none of them dare call out the communist entity due perhaps to the heavy load of western investments there. The narrative report created by the ranking agencies are based on the information provided by "intellectuals, journalists and professors" in the target countries. Dr Babones is certainly right when he says, and he received considerable flak for his intellectual honesty, that Indian "intellectuals" are anti India and are willing partners in the international game of demonising India and vilifying the country. He  however takes a Pollyanna view when it comes to the Ranking Agencies themselves and he says that they are objective but are misled by the Indian informants. I think the answer is not so simple. The Western Ranking Agencies choose "experts" who are known for their political views and ideological pretenses. They essentially round up the usual suspects and ask them to provide an analysis which the "expert" gladly does thereby winning the kudos from his backers and can strut in India with the injured look of a martyr who "speaks truth to Power". 

Where does the problem start, at the Indian end or in Europe and USA. Dr Babones has rightly stated in his now famous article in The Quadrant that  the fall in India's ranking as a Democracy dates back to 2014, the very year Narendra Modi came to Office following an electoral landslide in his favor. And the criticism grew even sharper after he repeated his victory in 2019. It is obvious that the discourse on Freedom, Democracy and Human Rights, carries a huge burden of western liberal expectations, and has nothing to do with  ground realities. Some of the prominent figures who are known to be pro western and who are able to get published in the liberal platforms such as Washington Post, New York Times and the Guardian have been booked by the Government of India for fraud and that has nothing to do with their journalism but more related to crowd funded scams for COVID relief which were conveniently transferred to personal accounts. Even USA has laws against Money Laundering, Wire Fraud and the like. The context is deliberately obscured and a discourse of Freedom of the Press being threatened with the active collusion of such hucksters.

The fall in India ranking in the Hunger Index caused considerable consternation in India with loud mouths in India latching on to what appeared to be a drastic fall under the watch of Narendra Modi. Even I was taen by surprise as I have mentioned in my Blogs that the Direct Transfer Benefits to the low income groups and the free distribution of food grains directly to the target population were some of the innovations introduced by Modi through the linking of National Identity Card (AADHAR) with Bank Accounts.  Babones pointed out that the fall in ranking was due to the false data given in 2013 by the UPA regime which was not corrected by the new Government. In a poor resource constrained country like India, targeted distribution is the only solution. There can be no Universal Distribution Scheme  in India and if ranking agencies cannot understand the rationale, India could care less.

Indian Social Sciences is a discipline that mimics, imitates and copies the intellectual trends in western countries and so we are not surprised that "Social Scientists" in India have a Pavlovian response to the promptings of their handlers and so play ball. Most of the assessments provided by the Indian informants are either misleading or deceitful as Dr Babones has stated on several occasions. Another flawed method used to downgrade India and its Civilization is to use absolute figures, especially crimes against women, and paint a dreadful picture. However when factored for population, then India comes across as a safe country. While I do not want be belabor the point, there is no escape form the fact that the false reportage is due to the complicity of Indian "experts". And most of them work in Public funded Universities and face no administrative or legal issues shows that academic  freedom/license is indeed very high and is systematically misused against India and its image.

People of India must be grateful to scholars like Dr Salvatore Babones for their trenchant rebuttal of the fae narratives pedaled against India.



Thursday, February 25, 2021

Narendra Modi in Pondicherry: A New Political Formation emerges

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books


Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India, arrived in Pondicherry on a ne day visit. He was welcomed by the newly appointed Lt Governor Dr Tamilissai, who was once the President of Tamil Nadu BJP and now the Governor of Telengana. Addressing the public soon after he had inaugurated a slew of developmental projects, the Prime Minister lit into the dynastic politics and family oriented High Command culture of the Congress Party and its leadership in Pondicherry. He inaugurated a Blood Bank at JIPMER and laid the foundation of the Karaikal Centre of JIPMER, he announced the development of Minor Ports in Pndicherry under the Sagarmala Scheme and the inauguration of the IV laning of the Sattanthapuram to Nagapattinam Section of NH 32. And the most important of all the dedication of the rebuilt Hotel Marie to the Nation.

Narendra Modi did not mince words. He drew attention to the fact that a leader who to his own leader is not worth electing. This was in reference to the infamous video that went viral in which a woman who complained to Rahul Gandgi when he visited Pondicherry last week, saying that Narayanaswmy and his Government did not extend any help to those affected in the recent rains. This was conveyed to Rahul as though the woman was complimenting the Government for the splendid work done. Narayanaswamy like every petty courtier sought to take advantage of the ignorance of the languages of communication of both Rahuk Gandhi and the poor  woman. The Prime Minister also reminded the people of the slipper lifting episode in which Narayanaswamy picked up the slippers of Rahul Gandhi thereby demeaning himself and thus demonstrating his servility to the Crown Prince. Apart from these the Prime Minister also listed the several lapses on the part of the Narayanaswamy Government including the long delayed Panchayat Polls.

The BJP is making an all out effort to win Pondicherry. It is a fact that the Government of Pondicherry was absolutely inept partly because of the in ability of the Chief Minister to get along with Dr Kiran Bedi, the Lt Governor appointed by the Centre. He resorted to agitation against Dr Kiran Bedi twice but did not succeed in making any headway against the Lt Governor. Even on the contentious issue of the 3 nominated MLAs he lost as the Supreme Court held that the 3 MLAs had the same rights and privileges as any elected member. In fact over the four years he had been in power, Narayanaswamy took several of his disagreements with DR Bedi to Court and did not get relief in even a single case.  The frustration within the Congress became acute and several MLAs including the second in command, Shri Namasivayam resigned from the Party. And Narayanawsamy Government fell as it was reduced to a minority.  

What about the up coming Polls. There are 30 seats in all. The BJP will certainly win a few seats around 5 to 6 and along with the AIADMK and the NR Congress the NDA political Formation will end up with around 17 to 18 seats.  The importance of Pondicherry to the BJP is purely symbolic. It wants to post a credible  electoral performance ina Tamil speaking area. And in this the BJP will succeed.

Friday, January 15, 2021

K R Malkani's Political Mysteries A Bird's Eye View of the Scandals of Mdern India

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Political Mysteries
K R Malkani
Ocean Books Pvt Ltd
New Delhi

K R Malkani remains to my mind an unforgetable character. I got to know him well when he was the Lt. Governor of Pondicherry and found interacting with him a learning experience. He was a man of endowed with great intellectual capacity and a steel fortified integrity. I knew him well over the course of his stay in Pondicherry as the Lt Governor and he has left a mark here. He was accessible and did not let prtocol come in the way while helping commn people. He was the editor of Organizer for several years and while in Office he  publishe India First, and I cherish the autographed copy of the book he presented me. As he is not amongst us any more I pay respect to his memory. I will always remember Shri K R Malkani. 

The book under review is an interesting selection from some of the lead articles he wrote for the publications he edited. As a journalist, Shri Malkani was unlike the sorry breed today that brandishes fake Harvard credentials, deeply committed to the rigorous pursuit of inconvenient truths. He was well read and could place a seemingly disparate assemblege of facts in a convincing well researched narrative. Most of the pieces collected in this small volume deal with issues that raised considerable interest in its day and though question lingered on, the politisised Media did not pursue truth to its quarry. Malkani was different. He raised tricky questions and sought to answer them without mincing words. Pretty euphemisms were not for him. He was a founding member of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh along with Atal Behari Vajpayee, Advani and Balraj Madok. And he remained true to his convictions until the very end. Except  for a term as a Rajya sabha member and one year as Lt Governor of pondicherry, Malkani did not hold any public office. And he did not let the trappings of high office distory either his vision or his personality. When he passed away, Pondicherry mourned as though it had lost its own.

State sponsored historians generally avoid raising twi issue: One did Nehru and his Congress Party fall into the trap of the British as executed by Mountbatten rush headlong towards Partition without thinking of altenatives. By bringing forward the date of Independence from August 1948 to August 1947 Nehru created conditions that led to an ill prepared and badly executed plan of Partition and all its horrors can be placed at the feet of this man. Malkani brings out his fact along with the shabby manner in which Nehru dealt with Subash Cahndra Bose. While he goes along with the generally accepted theory of the Air Crash in Taiwan killing Bose, Malkani sees a more direct hand of the then Government. Was Bose sacrificed in order to save the Japanese Emperor from facing charges related to Japan's war time atrocities in South East Asia. The non serious Commissions of Inquiry appointed b successive Congress regimes shows lack of interest, ifv not complicity. The second issue pertains to the series of crimes that have taken place in India during successive Congress regimes for which answers are not forthcoming. Though he does not use the term, kleptocracy, sums up the Congress approach to politics and the fig leaf of fake secularism is bandied about as alibi.

As a major and senior leader of the Bharatiya Jana Sangh, Malkani is obviously interested in the mystery surrounding the murers f Shyama Prasad Mukerjee and Deen Dayal Upadhya. It is obvious from the sequence of events that Shyama Prasad Mukerjee was treated with particular callousness that resulted in his death. A diabetic if deprived of insulin for 40 days is bound to die and so Nwhru should have intervened and saved his life. As in the case of Bose, perhaps Gandhi as well, Nehru had Sheikh Abdullah do the dirty deed for him. As fr Deen Dayal it was certainly a case of planned assasination at Mughalsarai Junction and Indira Gandhi did not even try hanging a fig leaf over this hrrible crime. I would like to add one more which Malkani has nt discussed. The brutal assasination of L N Mishra at Samastipur Railway Station. A few Anand Margis were arrested. But it is now clear that higher ups in the congress Party were interested in seeing the end of L N Mishra whose role in the State Trading Corpration Scandal was unraveling.

Malkani is also very critical of the role played by Indira Gandhi and the Congress is extending support to Bhindrenwale and his Khalistani movement, The cynical calculation behind this destructive policy was the splitting of the Akali vote. Prakash Singh Badal had succeeded in winning a clear majority for the Akalis with the support of the BJ sangh. And Zail Singh and Indira decided n this dangerus game. The fall out of Indira's self destructive policies was of course her own death, the terrible Massacre of Sikhs organized and perpetrated by the Congress Party, the downing of KNISHKA, the Air India Flight from Canada'.

The book is well written and must be read by anyone interested in contemporary politics. The dark deeds of the rulers must be exposed an Malkani has done just that.

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Delhi Riots 2020: A Chronicle and a Searing Indictment

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The series of riots in Delhi 2019 to Febuary 22nd to 14th centering around the Act passed by Parliament, the ammendment to the Citizenship Act, is extensively documented in this short and well documented book written by three women who call themselves, a Group of Intellectuals. This is a welcome step in the right direction as Riots are nt documented and hence a fake narrative soon replaces the real sequence of events and the White Media is ever keen to misreport and misrepresent the events making victims the villians, the perpetrators of violence the heroes or sheroes, and completely distort the rea;ity in order to further the agenda f hostile countries/societies. In recent years, the Western Media particularly the American Media which once enjoyed an enviable reputation for fair reporting has now degenerated into an agenda driven woke inspired propaganga machine of almost Orwellian dimensions.

The authors rightly start with the genesis of the riots which they trace to the concerted, organized and deliberate infiltration of anti Indian propaganda into a purely domestic matter which has been hanging fire since 1947. The Partition in 1947, hasty, brutal, ill conceived and anarchic was imposed on India by Jawaharlal Nehru and Mountbatten. In the violence that followed Jawaharlal Nehru's Tryst with Destiny, at least 3 to 4 million Hindus and Sikhs were killed and many more displaced. The Prime Minister of Pakistan and of India agreed in the famous Liaqat-Nehru Pact to repatriate indigenous people still left in Pakistan. This became necessary as the Islamic Republic of Pakistan was created exclusvely for Moslems while India true to its liberal ethos did not insist on an exchange of Population. Unfortunately over the years the indigenous people of India left behid in the "belly of the beast" have had enormous suffering imposed on them. Forced conversion, abduction of young women and girls, discrimination in employment, violence directed at community leaders, lack of edcational opportunities and the consequent ghettoization of the indigenous communities consisting largely of Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhist, Jain and Christian. Even Christians, recognized as People of the Book, have been systematically persecuted under the draconian Anti Blasphemy Laws. Right from the time of Nehru the issue of granting relief to the indigenous people has been hanging fire and the BJP had promised the CAA not only in the 2014 Eletion Manifesto but also in 2019. In December 2019 the CAA was passed and in January 2020 it became Law after securing the assent of the President of India.

Deliberate concentrated and sustained propaganda was set afoot to incite Muslims all over India. The CAA was not designed to take the Citizenship away form Indian Muslims and though the educated ones were aware of this fact they deliberately colluded with ant Indian elements to propagate the view that Indian muslims would lose their Citizenship. Also the legal requirement of a verified National Population Register (NPR) which will be initiated soon was invoked as an assault of Mslems being equal citizens of  India. Unfortunately Moslem Identity Poltics which had its origin in the Khilafat Agitatin of 1921 and led to the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has not been countered effectively by the pabulum called Secularism. And since the time of Nehru successive Congress and non Congress regimes have incited Moslem Identity assertion and its accompanying baggage of victimhood to shepherd them into a reliable votng block, the infamous Vote Bank that political reporters speak of.

Against this background, the victory of the BJP twice in a row deeply affected the interests and offered a serious challenge to the self image of its so called intellectual elites who have lorded over the Academia, Media and the Entertainment world. The CAA provided just the pretext for a show of strength, the aar paar ki ladai as the leader f the Congress Party, Sonia Gandhi put it. A fight to end all fights would be a rough translation. The students of the Left leaning JNU, Moslem universities like JMI and AMU were mobilized and funds from Western countries and from the Middle East were pumped in to set the Riots in motion. For months from December 2019 Shaheen Bagh a predominantly Moslem area was virtually a no go zone much like the "liberated zones" of USA taken over by the Black Lives Matter agitators. Te Government of India showed enormous patience and did little to have the squatters evicted and in the Shaheen Bagh and many felt that the Gvernment of India has suddenly goe soft on the agitators. After the visit of President Trup was confirmed, the agitators started ramping up the agittion and scaling it up to draw the attention of the international/White Media.

The image reproduced on the left is an iconic image of the Shaheen Bagh Agitation. It shows a man firing at the police and there are several such images. In pursuit of one such violent gang the Delhi Police in a hot chase entered the seat of the agittion, the Jamia Milia Islamia University as the rioters had taken refuge there. And a pliant media was ready at hand to project that as an asssault on an "educational institution" and "ppor inncent students". Short heavily edited videos were circulated on the Social Media Platforms, particularly Telegram and WhattsApp to incite more violence. All these facts are ably brought out in the book.

The preparations for the violence was systematic, particularly in East Delhi. Tahir, a respected leader of the Moslems had organized acid, pistols, stones, gas cylinders, catpults and firearms on high rise buildings to attack the Police and one Intelleigence Officer Ankit Sharma was caputred and tortured by the molem supporters of Tahir for more than 7 hours before he was killed and his body dumped in a drain. (picture on the left).

The Delhi Riots were a terrible disaster that visited Delhi and on a smaller scale it had all the hallmarks of the 1984 anti Sikh Pogram organized by the Congress party under Rajiv Gandhi. There was considerable planning for violence, the core constituency was radicalized, weapons and arms gathered and the Foreigh Media was kept briefed about the events from the perspective of the rioters

This book is valuable contribution and it is a pity that a white male orgnizer of literary events who grandly calls himself a "historian" used the colour of his skin, white privilege, to ensure that this piece of credible documentation lies burried forever. It is a sign of the times that he did not succeed.


Thursday, June 13, 2019

AMIT SHAH, POLITICS, PARTY AND BIOGRAPHY

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Amit Shah and the March of the BJP
Anirban Ganguly 1 Shiwanand Dwivedi
New Delhi: Bloomsbury, 2019.



Isac Deutcher, the famous biographer of Stalin and of Trotsky quotes the Florentine political thinker Niccolo Machiavelli who says "all armed phpphets conquer and unarmed prophets are vanquished". Biographers of politicians, diplomats and statesmen should remember this wise insight while writing biobraphies or rather manufacturing them. Anirban Ganguly, is a well known ideologue of the BJP and is the Director of the Syama Pradad Reseach Foundation, a well known think tank, in New Delhi. He is a good writer with an impressive educational credentials to his name.n However, Amit Shah and his political life though well documented, this book fails to address certain vital issues: the Goghra Incident, the Shorabbuddin Inncident and the encounter killings of Ishrat Jehan and her terrorist companions are just ignored. And this is a wrong rhetorical strategy. In fact as a biographer of Amit Shan, Anirban Ganguly should have discussed these three very imp[ortant events that in effect shaped Amit Shah's rise to the most poserful positionas the Home Minister of India. Before delving into the details of the biography I want to discuss precisely the issues evaded by Dr Ganguly.

Both the Hon'ble Prime Minister and the Hon'ble Home Minister of India have been accused by the Congress and other opposition parties of being complicit in the massacres that took place after the killing of the 59 passengers at Godhra station in Febuary 2002. Andy Marino in his biography of Narendra Modi which I have reviewed in this blog, has clearly brought out the facts that Narendra Modi was elected to the Gujarat Assemby just a day before the Godhra inncident and he was 200 kilometers away. Telephone records clearly show thst the then Chief Minister anf his MoS Home Department, noene other than the subject of this biography were on the phone directing the police to use maximum force to bring the riots under control. The Army was called out from Ahemdabad on the same day and this is in direct contrat to the conduct of Rajiv Gandhi who refused to call out the Army even as Congressmen went aon a killing spree after his mother died. Shoot at sight orders were given and more people were killed in the police firing than in the riots inself. Rampaging mobs were brought under control. The UPA Government tried to implicate Narendra Modi in the Gujarat Riots by saying that the state Governemnt did not take steps to control the situation. In fact, there were insinuations to the effect by Congressmen that Modi and Shah were directing the mobs and a discredited police officer, Sanjeev Bhat made statements to the effect that he was present in the room when such orders were given. This satement of Sanjeev Bhat was proved to be false on the basis of his own mobile phone data which showed his presence elsewhere. Based on such propaganda the Supreme Court ordered a Special Investigating Team and the SIT after interogationg both Modi and Shah gave a clean chit. In other words, exonerated both of any involvement in the post Godhra riots. This allegation was used both by the Congress party and Pakistan to demonixde Modi leading to the denial of US visa for nearly a decade. These facts are important and Anirban Ganguly has erred by ignoring them.

Amit Shah was the Minister of State for the Home Department and reported directly to the Chief Minister. Amit Shah hailed from a rich Gujarati business family and was educated in a traditional way and this explains both the analytical skill and the vigour of his public persona. Remarkably, Amit Shah was externed from Gujarat on the orders of the High Court and this turned out to be a blessing in disguise. The killing of Shorabbuddin, a criminal who was into extortion and ransom from rich marble traders from Rajastan and Gujarat was wanrted for henious crimes in 9 states of India and he was arrested by the Andhra Pradesh police and was taken to Ahmedabad. His killing seems to have been a fall out of rivalries with other extortionist gangs and Vanjara, the Director General of Police was given the goahead for the encounter. Amit Shan was in no way involved in the execution style killing of Kousar Bi who was a witness to the killing of Shorabbudin and the telephonic conversations produced in court clearly show that the context of the exchange was limited to Shorabbudin, a criminal wanted in 9 states. The then UPA regime wanted to foist the case of wilful murder on Amit Shah by arguing that the encounter in which Ishrat Jehan was killed was a "fake encouter" and the three men and the girl ws killed in cold blood. This false allegation was mounted by suppressing two vital pieces of information. First, the Indian IB itself provided an affadavit stating that Ishrat and her companions were LeT terrorits. Second, David Coleman Headley in his custodial interrogation had stated clearly that Ishrat was given training in becoming a suicide bomber. The lengths to which the Congress under Sonia, Chidambaram and Shinde went to hide these facts and proscecute Amit Shah suggets that they were part of the conspiracy to carry out an assasination.

All these controversies swirling around Amit Shah led his to be arrested and he spent four months in Sabarmathi Jail before he was ordered out of Gujarat. These events shaped the political future of Amit Shah and in a way the rst of the country. Shah took up residence in Delhi and started planning for the 2014 General Election. His reorganization of the Party as the National Secretary was the turning point in the political fortunes of the BJP. While Narendra Modi is undoubtedly the tallest and the best Prime Minister India has had, ever, Amit Shah's role as the strategist cannot be gain said. Amit Shah made the BJP into a well oiled electoral machine and sought to involve people from the level of the booth right up to the Central Committee of the Party. He may not know, but Amit Shah took a leaf straight out of Lenin's advice to his parttment on the eve of the October Revolution of 1919. Organize the party at the level of the soviets. Another every important contibution of Amit Shah lay in collecting the documents relating to the Pary and making it availble on public domain. The BJP e Library is one of the finest and no political party can boast of such a fine line up of reseach and scholarly material. And Amit Shan was one of the first to understand the importance of "Big Data" in planning for the National Elections. BJP has one of the most sohisticated data cntres in which GIS enabled data for all the main Lok Sabha constituencies is available at the click of a mouse. The creation of this data base was due to the concerted efforts of computer savvy men and women who worked as volunteers for years on end.

Amit Shah is now the Hom,e Minister. He won from the Gandhinagar seat. What will be his main thrust. He will be ruthless in the pursuit of Indian polical objective and hence he will be in Machivalli's sense a prophet armed. He will be tough on naxalite violence and will not hesitate to use his immense political capital to strengthen the BJP in parts of India where it is weak. As far as terrorist viloence is concerned, there will be tough measures without too much though for collateral damage. Being honest to the core, Amit Shan can afford to be ruthless. And India demands ruthless action in Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

The book under review makes good reading. But it leaves the reader unsatisfied as important issues are ignored. I reccomend this book.

Monday, May 27, 2019

THE VICTORY OF THE BJP IN THE MAY 2019 ELECTIONS; IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

https://wordcraftandstatecraft.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-electoral-prospects-of-bjp.htmlA look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

There was no great surprise in the relection of the BJP and the victory of Shri Naredra Modi. In fact in a number of blogs we had made the same prediction and the actual number of seats won was close to the figure we had predicted in the blog (link above). 303 seats across the lengrth and breadth of the country. From 282 seats in the 2014 Elections the individual seats of the BJP has gone up to 303 and the Party contested little over 385 seats leaving the rest to its allies like Shiv Sena, JD  (U), Shiromani Akali Dal and the AIADMK. If we can use a cricketting metaphor from the T20 series, the srike rate of the BJP is very high meaning 80 % of the BJP candidates won their seats. In order to curb anti incumbancy, the BJP dropped nearly 105 sitting members. On the whole an impressive amndate and for the first time in India's electoral history, the percentage of votes polled have crossed 50% in vafour of the BJP. Most Governemnts have been formed with vote shares ranging from 28% to 34%. We now have a Governemnt with a vote share of more than 50%. All this means stability and the Government will be bold in taking decisons.
The Map given illustrates the safforon surge that has seen the emergence of the BJP as India's natural party of Governence. This victory was achieved in the face of the most vicious electorl campaign that India has even seen. Rahul  Gandhi, the putative challenger, had to tender an apology to the Supreme Court of India for calling Modi a "chor", thief. Other Congressmen emboldened by the aggression displayed by their leader were less than flattering in their rhetorical attacks on the Prime Minister. The more he was attacked, the greater was the backlash from the electorate. Then a variety of identity cards were pulled out: Dalis are in danger was one such. The fact is that the BJP has convincingly demonstrated its hold over the Dalit population by winning 75% of the reserved seats. In fact Congress did not win a single reserved seat nor did the Communists. For all their bluff and bluster both the Connumits and the Congress are bereft of any support amonmg the subaltern classes. Only the BJP commands the allegiance of the SC and ST communities. In the tibal belt of Central India the BJP held sway. All this goes to ahow thast the vicious campaign of polarization run by the so called Cetre Left Parties did not cut ice with the population.

The BJP won 18 seats in West Bengal and a clutch of seats in Orissa. The re election of Naveen Patnaik to power shows that the Indian electorate rewards good governence. In Tamil Nadu and Kerala the results show that people vote on emotional lines. There was sustained and calculated socialmedia attacks on Modi and the bJP throughout the 5 years that he has been in power and more so sicne the death of Jayalalitaa. The killings of the Tamils in Sri Lanka during the UPA rule was forgotten and the party which was then in power Congress joined hands with the DMK. The ease with which they joined hands shows that the politics of Tamil Nadu is still fluid and if BJP has effective leadership, the challenge can be met. In Bengal the BJP gave a resounding ideological challenge to the TMC. In Tamil Nadu the BJP takes dravidianist ideology for granted. It is not prepared to challenge the dravidianist dispensation.

What can India expect from Narendra Modi in the next five years. First, econom,ic development by huge investment in Infrasttructure will continue. New ports and transport hube will be established. On the National Security front major initiatives can be expected. The Nation Register of Citizens will be given full adminstrative backing as it has the approval of the Supreme Court. Identity politics will not be entertained thopugh the Congress habit of instigating the minorities will continue. Cattle Laws will be enforced so that the instances of gau rakshaks taking law into their own hands are reduced. Israel India partnership in Education will be encouraged. Modi will try to ease tensions with China as he is focussed on the internal developments and he cannot be distracted by adventures near the border.

The Economy will continue to grow at 7 to 8 % and further liberalization will be expected. Agricultural sector will be looked in and cold storage facilties and Silos for grain storage will be undertaken. In Higher Education there will be an emphasis on fundamental research.

Friday, February 15, 2019

The Terrorist attack at Pulwama, Kashmir: Politics vs Reality

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The attack on the CRPF convoy by a Kashmiri youth who drove his Scorpio packed with 350 kilograms of explosives into a bus carrying soldiers resulted in the massacre of 40 soldiers. The pictures circulated on social media show lifeless mass of flesh strewn all over the national highway. It makes shocking visuals. The Nation was shocked and numb with pain that is now turning to anger. The Pakistani terrorist organization, Jaish-i-Mohammad has claimed responsibility and there is growing clamour for resolute action. The Prime Minister, Narendra Modi speaking on behalf of the Nation has stated that this attack will not go unpunished. The immediate withdrawal of the Most Favoured Nation Status for Pakistan seems to be the beginning and it is likely that the River Waters Treaty which guarantees the flow of water into Pakistan will be invoked to reduce or curtail the waters. The support for the militancy in Baluchistan will be stepped up and the long standing demand that the Pahstuns who are divided by the Durand Line be freed from the tyranny of Pakistan will also see some traction. However all these measure lie in the future. What are the realistic options to Punish Pakistan?

After the attack on the Indian Army e at URI, India launched a series of attacks against Pakistani militant targets across the Line of Control. Unfortunately the Congress Party and its allies politicized the reprisal attacks so thoroughly that is now unlikely to be used. The major attack on the Prime Minister was that he chose to launch the surgical strikes across the Line of Control in order to bolster his political image. This line of criticism is wrong because it attributes a political motive of a rather crass kind to a major decision. The objective behind the surgical strike was two fold: firstly, to demonstrate India's willingness to cross the LOC in hot pursuit and secondly to demonstrate Indian military and tactical capability. For tha past few years Indian special operation forces are being trained in the Negev Desert by Israel and the success of the surgical strikes proves that Israel has been helping India in every respect. As a long term policy India may try to develop the ability to strike first at known militant targets in Pakistan but as of now does not have the ability. Training troops such operations across the border is not an easy venture because the fractious nature of India's social fabric and also the lack of a unified political opinion across the spectrum. Paries like the Congress, the regional dynastic parties, the communist factions will start attacking the policy of defense through offense and thereby compromise Indian policy. Indeed the degradation of Indian Intelligence assets in Pakistan started with I K Gujral who was Prime Minister for a brief time. The 2019 General Elections must ensure a strong and stable Government if India has to deal with pakistani challenge successfully.

The most disheartening aspect of the present crisis is the senseless and tragic politicization of the tragedy. The former Hom,e Minister of India who served under the dynastic fascists, one Sushil; Shinde even blamed the Prime Minister's surgical strike as the provocation for the attack. In order to protect their vote banks in India the dynastic Fascists are even willing to give aid and comfort to the enemy. A resolute response can be expected but it will not happen immediately.

India I think is finally opening its eyes to the fact that if Pakistan survives as a nation it is a threat to India and the fact that the Islamic identity has not prevented Pakistan from falling apart in the past is now being given some traction. Pakistan is a highly militarized state armed with nuclear weapons. This fact alone atays India. But now, the time seems to be running out and gradually a political consensus which eluded India for long is emerging.

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

The Political Scenario for the BJP in the run up to May 2019 General Elections

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

This was written before the Pulwama Attack

The General Election that are due in 2019 are crucial for India. On the one hand we have the rumblings of discontent from sections of the rural population and on the other we have the gradual consolidation of fragmented political forces uniting under the banner of a "Great Coalition" or Maha Gattabandhan. What will be the BJP's strategy under these changed circumstances. We must also note that in the three major Assembly Elections held recently, the BJP lost all three without however, surrendering its vote share The BJP strategists have an unenviable task: they have to forge a winning strategy in a situation in which the NDA Government faces a double whammy: the consolidation of Opposition parties and the anti incumbency which is rising by the day. Since the BJP has a formidable election machinery it will be in a position to worst these challenges, but it needs thought.

The record of the BJP Government has not been bad, in spite of what the Indian Mainstream Media may say. The policies of the Central Government have had a direct bearing on the life and Livelihood of large sections of the Indian poor. The recently launched Health Insurance Scheme, in spite of its teething troubles, is a resounding success. The rural poor have benefited from this Scheme and like all other Schemes of the Government it is linked to ADHAR and is based on the direct transfer of funds from the Central Government to the Hospital in which the patient is treated. The financial inclusion project of the Government has enabled a large number of people to be drawn into the banking network and it is likely that, if the BJP returns to power, it will announce a universal household income to all eligible poor. This policy, may however, result in the gradual phasing out of subsidies. The Swachch Bharat Scheme is undoubtedly  a grand success. It may not have met all the parameters of cleanliness but India is certainly cleaner now than it was five years ago. The Infrastructure growth has been phenomenal and both road and air connectivity has improved. The UDAN scheme has resulted a a number of smaller towns including, Pondicherry, where this blogger resides, becoming linked. The fact that there has not been a single major instance of corruption itself is a testimony to Good Governance. However, in a country like India, Good Governance and Corruption free Administration are not guarantors of electoral victory. How else can we explain the defeat of the Atal Behari Government in 2004. the victory of Lalu Prasad Yadava in Bihar and the repeated successes of DMK and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu.

The Modi Government ignored some of the core issues of the constituents. The fact is that school text books still retain the same nonsense from the days of the UPA shows that the Central Government lacks the intellectual strength to take the task of rewriting the text books head on. Also the Government has prevaricated over the Ram Temple issue.  The issue has now boiled down to a title suit over the disputed site in Ayodhya and there are some like Dr Subramanian Swamy who have been calling for an Ordinance on the issue. Prime Minister Narendar Modi has ruled out an Ordinance on the issue. It is unlikely that the Ram Temple issue will have a decisive impact as people are aware of the fact that a premature declaration of intent will be challenged in the Courts and the matter will rest there for years to come. The recent Constitutional Amendment, the 124th Amendment, by which the institutionalized Identity Politics that prevailed for over 70 years has been given a death blow. The poor of the Upper Castes who were deprived of their share of jobs and educational opportunities will now drift toward the BJP and this segment will prove decisive in North India.

Does the Opposition unity augur ill for the BJP. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP bagged 73 seats in 2014 and in May this number will come down by atleast 20 to 25. The electoral pact between the Samjwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) of Mayawati is not going to be a great threat to the BJP as the SC votes promised by Mayawati will not trasfer to the SP. BJP will win around 50 seats here provided the Party is able to sell its not inconsiderable achievements to the people. In Bihar, Madhya Pradesh Rajastan, and smaller states like Uttarakhand and Chatisghar the BJP faces an uphill task.

All over I predict that the bJP will get around 230 to 240 seats. It will not be the single largest Party. In Maharashtra with 40 seats, the BJP will face a recalcitrant Siva Sena. In Tamil Nadu except the seat held by Pon Radha Krishnan I dont see any chance. 

Saturday, November 3, 2018

Politics over Sardar Patel's Legacy

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books


The Patel Statue
There is no gainsaying the fact that History is being re visited today in India. Since Independence the State has propagated a version of history which, while serving the needs of the politically dominant party, the Indian National Congress and its central dynasty.has left a large number of gaping holes in the Narrative. Foremost is the question whether the Indian National Congress did enough to prevent Partition and its huge cost in terms of human life and suffering. Second, if Partition was inevitable as the "historians" of Jawaharlal Nehru University and the Leftist acolytes argue, can they tar all those who opposed Partition as "communal" elements "reactionaries" "obscurantists" and the list is endless. One reason for the lack of diversity in contemporary Historiography of India is the fact that the historical profession has been prevented from reassessing the role of the Indian National Congress in the Struggle for Indian Independence. The recent attempts on the part of the Modi Government to draw attention to the contribution of Netaji Subash Chandra Bose and Sardar Vallabha Bhai Patel are step in the right direction.

First the Statue. One of the many canards that are being spread by the mainstream media is that Modi seeks to "appropriate" the legacy of Sardar Patel. It is unclear hos the mere dedication of a National Monument is appropriation of a legacy. Also there are those in the Congress party who say that since the Patels are restive and are no longer the backbone of the BJP in Gujarat, Modi is seeking to assuage Patel Asmita or Pride. Reducing Patel to a mere icon of caste identity is to distort and undermine the stature of Patel. But then who has ever accused the Indian National Congress and the Dynastic Fascists of caring for people's sentiments or historical accuracy.  The fact is the Nrendra Modi proposed the Memorial to Sardar Patel in 2010 long before he became Prime Minister and in 2010 there was no sign of Modi emerging as the Prime Minister of India. By distorting the very chronology there is attempt to politicize the Monument. Construction began in 2013 and this was also before Modi became the Prime Minister. Projecting History backwards in a teleological arrangement is the favorite tactic of the JNU bran of Historiography and of course, give it a political spin to make that distortion resonate with "progressive" opinion.

Then the cost. The cost of the memorial works out to be 2854 crores. A huge sum of money. The justification for this spectacular Monument lies in the manner in which Patel was treated. A fact that is little recognized in modern Historiography of India is that Patel was chosen by 12 out of 15 Provincial Congress Committees to head the Congress in 1946 and would have become Prime Minister in the Interim Government. Nehru forced Gandhi to seek the resignation of Patel. A repeat of the Bose fiasco all over and given the enormous respect Patel had for Gandhi he stepped aside and let Nehru become the Prime Minister. This singular fact is hidden from History. Further, as the first Home Minister of Independent India, Patel welded the fractious assemblage of princely states into a united country using a subtle blend of tact and force. Junagadh and Hyderabad are good examples of Patel's strategic thinking. The only state/riyasat that was out of Patel's purview was Kashmir which was handled by Nehru directly and it continues to fester till this day. Patle wrote a letter to Nehru about the designs of China and this too Nehru ignored. Further, Nehru the patrician educated in the White Man's land treated Patel with open hostility and took delight in publically humiliating the great statesman. This factor contributed to the early death of Patel in 1950 and Nehru went on to live for 14 long years after the exit of India's saviour. Given this History, there is need to rehabilitate the Memory of this great Statesman. Nehru awraded himself the highest civilian honour, the Bharat Ratna and many in India seek to have that honour revoked. Sardar was honoured on in 1991 during a brief respite from the pestilence called dynastic rule.

Netaji Subash Chandra Bose remains an enigmatic personality in Indian History. He created the Indian National Army out of the prisoners of war captured by the Japanese in Singapore and turned them into a major force to liberate India. There is no doubt, as Clement Atlee said that it was the Indian National Army that finally convinced the British to leave India after the War. And again Netaji was forgotten. In fact Nehru even conspired with the Soviets to have Netaji declared a "war criminal". The alacrity with which Nehru declared that Netaji had died in the plane crash in August 1945 shows that Nehru was not interested in Netaji returning back to India. The return of Netaji would have meant the end of Nehru's dream of founding a Dynasty and keeping the Office of Prime Minister within his family. Modi rightly acknowledged Netaji's contribution by raising the National Flag on the ramparts of the Red Fort. Finally the fact that Netaji established the First Government of a  Free Independent and United India has been recognized.

Thus there is a great deal of scope for a revision of the dominant hegemonic discourse on modern Indian History. The congress centric narrative rests on distortions evasions and hagiography. It is time to change that and Narendar Modi has begun the task.


Saturday, October 6, 2018

THE BJP'S ELECTION MACHINE: IS IT REALLY FORMIDABLE

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

How the BJP Wins: Inside India's Greatest Election Machine
Prashant Jha
New Delhi: Juggernaut, 2018

How the BJP Wins
The BJP sweep in the 2014 General Elections was not the outcome of a Modi Wave propelled by the unraveling of the Congress due to its involvement in monumental corruption. The BJP had three factors going for it: First, an Electoral and Political machine which is unparalleled in Indian Electoral politics due to its depth and range. Second, the Party used all the tools of modern technology to reach out to its support base and deliver the message right down to the level of individual household. Last but not least the image of Narendar Modi as a proven and able administrator. Indian journalists are prone to attribute success or failure to individuals and thereby evade more substantial question. As the run up to the 2019 Election start, the question on everyone's mind is: Will the BJP repeat the performance of 2014 or will there be a change in Government. I hazard to predict that the BJP and the NDA will emerge victorious as the Indian electorate is now quite mature and is not easily swayed by identity considerations based on Religion, Caste and Language. These do play a role but performance is also taken into consideration.

The book under review is an anecdotal account of the 2014 General Elections and the 2017 Mid Term polls in certain North Indian States, particularly Uttar Pradesh. The author, Prashant Jha has traveled extensively and has interacted with a large number of Karyakartas and he has written this book using a racy style eschewing political jargon and useless controversies. One issue needs to be cleared straightaway. The BJP is a broad based political party which has a long and honorable tradition of holding elections for its leadership. It is certainly not a fascist dictatorship that its opponents portray it to be. There is an institutionalized process of consultation within the Party and decisions are not taken in secretive conclaves or factional meeting as in the Congress party. The key to the political success of the BJP lies in this singular fact. The BJP is fundamentally democratic and while factions and caste alignments are ever present, the political line taken by the Party is predicated on a wide range of consultation within the Party fora. The author has pointed out that the karyakartas of the Party enjoy the advantage of easy access to the top leadership and also help in crafting a durable social base for the political success of the Party.

The main strategy deployed by the BJP is the sanghatan, the organizational link between the Rashtriya Swayam Sewak Sangh and the BJP.  The RSS provides the backbone for the electoral success of the party because of its deep and enduring relationship with the people at large by running schools and other welfare activities/ The involvement of the RSS in the work of the BJP at the basic constituency level ensures that the Election Campaign is monitored at all times and it also heps to translate support into votes. It would be accurate to say that no other political party has the advantage of having a large number of volunteers who work selflessly for a cause. One of the main reason for the constant drum beat of propaganda against the RSS is the real fear among the mainstream political parties that they lack "boots on the ground" who can undertake the onerous task of doing the hard work of getting the message across and getting out the vote on the day of the election.

The author also demolished the myth that the BJP is only an urban upper caste party. Ever since Rajni Kothari came out with his book Caste in Indian Politics more than half a century ago, journalists and Political Scientists have not gone beyond caste to understand the dynamics of Indian Elections. The recent publication Election Atlas of India gives us a wealth of GIS sensitive data which enables us to go well beyond the primitive caste paradigm put forth by Rajni Kothari.  The Booth Level Committees ensure the participation of all castes in the politics of the BJP and the fact that more than 45% of the dalit votes and OBC votes fell to the BJP in the last General Election is proof of its success in crafting a durable electoral base.

The book under review is an interesting read.

Thursday, July 12, 2018

Recent Political Controversies in India

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Indian political controversies have a flavour of its own. Issues flare up like shooting stars across the evening sky and burn up as attention is focused on them. However,some serious issues have been flagged in the recent past.

First, the involvement of the Missionaries of Charity in child trafficking has led to a huge public outcry. More than 450 babies, born perhaps to unwed mothers in the Jharkand state have gone missing. It is suggested that several of them were "sold" to couples but the Missionaries of Charity has no explanation to offer about the missing children. Due to its iconic status in India public outrage has been muted. What the sister of the Missionaries of Charity did, and in particular, Sister Concelia, is beyond doubt reprehensible. Added to this is the scandal that has now enveloped the Roman Catholic hierarchy in Kerala. A bishop has been accused of raping, yes, a nun and the entire hierarchy seems to have comedown in defense of the priest. In addition, there are crimes of passion including murder that several priests belonging to the Roman Catholic order face. A Jesuit priest allegedly killed another priest over a dispute.

Sashi Tharoor who is now on bail for the murder of his third wife Sunanda Pushkar  made a statement that India is becoming a "Hindu Pakistan". At the face of it, this statement is absurd but the intent behind the statement is clear:the dynastic fascists are seeking to polarize the electorate by consolidating Moslem vote bank while simultaneously making inroads in the BJP support base by encouraging caste based voting. This strategy is dangerous as it would either give the dynastic fascists a huge electoral victory or push the NDA to an unassailable  victory. Such statements have been made by Congress leaders in the past. During the time of Hafiz Syed inspired attack on Mumbai in 2008, the Congress leaders started a campaign that it was a "saffron terror" attack.In other words they tried to deflect the responsibility to the BJP and its allies. This campaign was further bolstered by the deliberate misrepresentation of the Israt Jehan Encounter as a planned murder done at the behest of the then Chief Minister of Gujarat. The fact that was suppressed is that the LeT terrorist David Colemen Headley had clearly indicated to his interlocutors that Israt Jehan was trained as a suicide bomber who had been tasked take out the Chief Minister of Gujarat then. Using identity politics and creating a false narrative around Moslem fears led to the Partition of the country and the dynastic fascists still seem to be innocent of its implications.

Mohammad Ansari, the Vice President nominee of the Congress and its allies has made a statement in which he supported the "triple talaq" and Halala rape indulged by sections of the Moslem society residing in India. The later refers to the practice of women spending a night in the company of a moulvi before she rejoins her husband after a triple talaq. The BJP led Government wants to bring in legislation that would outlaw such practices and Ansari instead of supporting these progressive policies decided to oppose them. Moslem identity politics generally takes the form and shape of a consolidated Moslem population vs an Indian Polulation. In fact, educated Moslems have long given up these practices and even in Muslim counties like Pakistan, such customs have long disappeared. The Muslim community in India is kept in a dark ghetto by its political backers who want only its vote in order to defeat the BJP. Playing on the fears, usually misplaced fears and pandering to the most reactionary and fundamentalist opinion has become the mainstay of Congress electoral strategy.

Will such identity based polarization work.

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Rahul Gandhi and the Politics of Hate and Sarcasm

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

One of the major drawbacks of dynastic politics is that individuals born to political and social privilege start believing in their entitlement to high office. In a Democratic polity, dynastic succession runs contrary to the very idea of an inclusive society as high office is often reserved for those born within a close circle. In the case of the Congress Party, the choice of succession is restricted to the members of the Nehru Gandhi family and the entire Party is reduced to being a mere props to the chosen Crown Prince. Rahul Gandhi who has succeeded his Italian born mother, Sonia, to the President of the Congress Party is making an utter fool of himself by his thoughtless patronizing and at time downright insulting public utterances.

Rahul Gandhi,s public display of ignorance and naivety is reflected in his remark that he has a machine capable of making potatoes into Gold. He is known to have spoken of the escape velocity of Jupiter and he even said quite seriously that his family was responsible for the Freedom of India. His thoughtless and arrogant remarks about the Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh (the RSS) has got him into trouble with the courts and a case of criminal defamation is currently under way. Similarly, thanks to the efforts of Dr Subramaniam Swamy, Rahul and Sonia are both facing criminal prosecution for cheating in the National Herald Case. In each of the cases mentioned above, Rahul got into trouble due to his lack of understanding and his inability to discern the damage his public statements will cause. More recently he declared that he is fit to be the Prime Minister of India even though his Party has only 44 seats in Parliament.

The remerks made by Rahul in Mubai after paying a visit to the ailing former Prime Minister of India, Atal Behari Vajpayee was both crass and immature. Rahul Gandhi, against the advice of the Medical team looking after Ataji at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, gatecrashed into the room of Atalji and later bragged about being the first to visit Atalji and then went on to pointedly say that the present Prime Minister had not gone to the Hospital thus showing lack of respect. Nothing could be further from the truth. None of the senior leaders went to the Hospital as the great Atalji was critical and nobody in his right mind disturbs a critically ill individual and then milks that for political gain. The entire country condemned the crass and senseless remarks of Rahul, the Clown Prince of Indian politics as he is derisively  called. There are also rumours swirling that he was caught in New York Airport with drugs and cash ans it was Atal Behari Vajpayee as Prime Minister who got the immature Rahul Gandhi out of trouble. Be that as it may, Rahul showed his lack of intellect and character by making that crass remark.

Will Rahul Gandhi emerge as a serious contender for political office. It is too early to say. However,Indian electorate is rather short sighted and is capable of being swayed by identity considerations.

Saturday, February 24, 2018

Killing Fields of Kerala: The lynching of Madhu

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books
Add captiMadhu at the hands of his captors

Look at the expression on the man's face: a vacant look of terror. A few seconds after this picture was taken the man died and his only crime was that he was a tribal in a state ruled by the Communist Party of India, the Marxist faction. Madhu was a tribal youth from Attydapy, a palce made famous by the struggle of Janu whose fast highlighted the plight of tribals in Kerala. Since the CPM faction has come to power, killings have become an endemic party of Kerala politics. The CPM has been involved in systematically terrorising its opponents in Kannur and Malappuram districts.Estimates vary. However nearly 40 BJP and RSS workers have been hacked to death since the Marxist faction came to power.

 The Popular Front of India, a radical Muslim outfit has been give a free run and it is suspected that the Marxists have outsourced the elimination of their opponents to the PFI and even mainstream Indian politicians like Hamid Ansari, the former Vice President of India, patronise this outfit. Since prosecution is in the hands of the State Government, there is little fear that there will be justice. And since RSS and BJP cadre are being systematically targeted, it is possible for the Marxists to maintain deniability and claim that it is the usual Hindu/Muslim problem. However, the failure of the state to act and apprehend the criminals is sufficient proof that the CPM organization supports these extra judicial killings.

The rapid strides taken by the BJP is shoring up its support base is causing alarm bells to ring. The BJP even won a seat in the last Assembly election. There is a caste dimension to the violence as well. The backbone of the marxist faction which is entrenched in power is the Ezhava community, a backward caste that is now powerful. The Tiya, are contesting the hegemony of the Ezhavas and they have rallied around  the RSS and the BJP. The Muslims who form a sizable part of the electorate are feeling the heat of the changed political dimension and are resorting to unabashed violence. In fact the majority of the men involved in the lynching of poor tribal, Madu, are muslims. And there is apprehension that the state willgo soft on them for political reasons.

The lynching of Madhu, a poor starving tribal who stole 200 Rs worth of rice exposes the hypocrisy of the Indian mainstream media. The Liberals went ballistic over the killing of Gauri Lankesh and one or two from their fraternity. It now appears that all the killings were in the nature of private revenge and had nothing to do with the Central Government though there were loud protests over the killing of Kalburgi, Dhabolkar and Lankesh all of which took place in Congress ruled states. Now this crime committed by Muslims in a Communists ruled State is proving to be a real dilema. The liberals are brought up to believe that crime with a gree tinge is best swept under the carpet and this has happened.

Saturday, February 17, 2018

ELECTION ATLAS OF INDIA: A REVIEW AND ANALYSIS

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Election Atlas of India
Datanet India Publication
Election Atlas of India
India, by common consent, the world'sDemocracy
has been condusting perodic Elections from 1952 and the General Elections of 2014 was momentous in that for the first time in 30 years a single National party emerged with a clear majority, albeit a majority of just 10 seats. Elections in India are extrmely complexin terms social, political and legal issues and can be a logistical nightmare in some instances. The use of the Electronic Voting Machine has revolutionized India elections and India can proudly claim that it conducts the fairest and the freest elections in the world. There are serious doubts over the democratic credentials of USA especially when it comes to voting rights for non white citizens. I do not think there is a comprehensive Atlas for US elections and the Book under review is a valuable resource for anyone interested in Election Studies. The organization of Big Data mined form a host of Election Commission Reports and the like is a huge challenge and the Editors have done a great job assembing the complex data in tabular form with accompanying maps.

An iteresting feaure of the Atlas is the use of GIS for generating maps of Indian parliamentary elections.I am sure that political parties like the BJP will find a wealth of information in this Atlas and if integrated with the Census Data and the National Sample Survey data, a political party can generate both the socia-economic profile of the Constitueny as well as its electoral history. Basic political data like total number of electorate and its division, the number of candidates in the constituency, the votes polled, the margin of vicctory, the number of polling station are all visually represnted in the Atlas. Interestingly, the distibution of political parties that came second in each parliamentary constituency across 16 General Elections is also given.Statistically significant data such as the margin of victory as conforming to or deviating from the national median is also given. Section II, entitled Election Timeline and General Info gives us a clear picture of certain sighnificant aspects of each parliamentary poll: the constituencies with the highest and the lowest turnout, the victory margin, the pecentage of votes that resulted in victory etc.

This book is a fantastic excersise in Big Data Anaysis and presnetation. I wish politics departments of Indian Universites teach their students how to use this wealth of information in their anaysis. One fact that emerges clearly, contrary to popular perception is that the BJP out performs all other National political parties in temrs of winning SC reserved seats and ST reserved seats.

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

The Life and Times of Dr Subramanian Swamy: Some Glimpses

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

Evolving with Subramanian Swamy: A Roller Coaster Ride
By Roxna Swamy
New Delhi 2017.                               

Writing the biography of a major political personality is beeset with challenges. And when a spouse pens the biography, it is likely to be dismissed as laudatory, biased and uncritical. Fortunately the biography of Dr Subramanian Swamy by his wife of over 40 years, the noted lawyer Roxna Swamy is not a wide eyed adulatory account of a major political personality of contemporary India. Of course, she is not overly critical of him but Subramanian Swamy emerges from the pages of the book under review as a determined, courageous, unforgiving and at times vengeful man. At the same time, the tenacity with which Dr Swamy has pursued the powerful and the corrupt is ably documented in the book. If India did not have a Subramanian Swamy, I have no hesitation is saying that the goonds politicians would be running the country with impunity, Single handedly he took on the might of the Indian state has has brought to the bar of justice Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Kanimozhi, Raja and scores of other corrupt political figures. It requires immense moral courage to do this and Dr Swamy has demonstrated that.

For persons of my generation, who came of age during the Emergency, Dr Subramanian Swamy will ever remain a Hero. The book gives us details of how he escaped from India during the Emergency and his dramatic reapearance in Parliament disguised as a sardar is legendary. The petty minded Indiara Gandhi and her Congress party expelled Swamy from the Rajya Sabha on patently fraudelent grounds, but Dr Subramanian Swamy reentered the Lok Sabha from the Bombay North East Constituency, the largest Lok Sabha Constituency in India. He had been promised the New Delhi seat, but the machinations of Atal Behari Vajpayee seems to have put paid to the hope of getting that seat. Vajpayee himself contested that seat and I was his booth agent in 1977 in the R K Puram polling booth.  Roxna seems to suggest that Vajpayee was bent on subverting the political carreer of Dr Swamy and ensured his exclusion from the Janata Party Ministry which was formed, The other pet peeve was Rama Krishna Hegde who tried to marginalize Swamy but the great Machiavelian that Swamy is, made Hegde eat crow by getting him to resign following the telephone tapping scandal.

Dr Subramanian Swamy is a towering figure in Indian politics and owes his palce entirely to the splendid intellect that he commands. Indian politics has seen two great intellectuals, Dr Ambedkar and Dr Swamy and both possess a doctorate from US Universities. Dr Swamy was educated at Harvard University from where he received his Ph D under the guidance of Simon Kuznetz. In his political life, Dr Swamy has been faithful to two very important principles: he is a beleiver in Capitalism as an economic system that promises equality and prosperity and he has always advocated a good diplomatic ties with Israel. In the pursuit of these goals he has not sververed during his long years in public life. Dr Swamy has utter contempt for the Nehruvian brand of state socialism which promoted corruption, inequality and mediocrity.

James Joll once wrote a book, Intellectuals in Politics. In India, Dr Swamy is the closest we have ever had of a politician who is highly educated, a power house of ideas, dedicated to the principle of a free society and above all a dogged and determined crusader against the endemic corruption. He is a broad minded individual as his personal life demonstrates his open mindedness.

I enjoyed reading this book.

Sunday, March 12, 2017

BJP VIctory in Uttar Pradesh: Implications for 2019

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

The BJP sweep in Uttar Pradesh did not come as a surprise to this blogger as he had predicted a tally of 300 seats. In reality, the BJP got well over this number and we have to ask some hard questions which have serious implications for the General Elections of 2019.

THe first question is: Did demonetization play a positive role in galvanizing the poorer sections of society in favour of the BJP. The conventional wisdom emanating from the wooly leftist commentators was that demonetization to prove a disaster and voters would register their protest in the polling booths. This did not happen primarily because the political messaging that accompanied the move was clear: the policy was aimed at unearthing black money and was meant to keep the pledge of rooting out corruption and hoards of hoarded wealth. The Congress and the BSP the most vocal critics of the MOdi initiative have had to bite the dust because they did not understand the baci purpose of the policy and its political implications. Even the small trader and daily wage worker soon adjusted to the new reality of a cashless or less cash economy and there was no major social unrest following the demonetization initiative. At the political level it shifted the focus of politics away from issues of identity to those of class, and employment along with livelihood.

The demonetization policy was effective in breaking the stranglehold of caste and power brokers over the electorate. Even in Muslim majority areas the Party has done extremely well. One obvious and a clear possibility is the Muslim women have voted in favor of the BJP given the stand taken by the party on the contentious triple talaq issue. But this alone does not explain the fact that even in predominantly Muslim areas like Deaband which has nearly 70% Muslim electorate, the bJP quite easily won the seat. Here I postulate a hypothesis that the younger Muslim voters are increasingly getting alienated from the sort of divisive politics that the traditional parties practice in the name of "secularism". Tokenism at best and condescension at worst is the main feature of Indian secularism. Modi's message, Sab Ke Saath, Sab ka Vikas is not a mere statement of intent. It is now emerging as a new contract between State and Civil Society.

In 2019, the BJP will be able to do well. However by that time, the state Government may have been in power for more than 2 years and hence the strong winds of anti incumbency will be felt. I suggest, though the BJP hot heads may disagree, that the present mandate is not for identity based issues like the Ram Mandir and BJP must resist playing identity politics on the issue except play the occasional tune to the die hard mandir addicts. The social coalition consisting of Brahmins, Rajputs, Trading castes and sections of the OBC and non Jatav SCs is a fragile and rather short sighted. It would be best not to put total faith in the sustainability of this coalition and continue to build up support.

An interesting feature in these Elections has been the substantial increase in the vote share of the BJP. Even in Goa where BJP got less seats than the COngress, the Party has more share of the votes polled and the same in Manipur. Uttarakhand and Punjab did not come as a surprise to anyone and I am sure that the BJP was expecting a poor show. Probably the showing of the AAP may have come as a surprise.

All in all, if this trend continues the BJP will cross 305 to 320 seats in the Lok Sabha Elections of 2019.

Friday, January 6, 2017

Modi's Financial Gamble: Did Demonetization Succeed or was it a Failure

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books

On November 8th 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi  announced a slew of measures which amounted to a drastic overhaul of the existing financial structure: The demonetization of the 500 and 1000 rupee notes. The legal basis for this policy is certainly questionable as macro economic policy comes squarely under the jurisdiction of the Reserve Bank of India and the RBI may have been consulted. However, the suddenness of the policy and effective manner in which it was implemented took everyone by surprise. What were the objectives of this measure:

First and foremost the unaccounted wealth, called Black Money in India, was becoming alarming huge. Some estimate that the parallel unaccounted economy was almost as large as the legitimate economy and was getting interfaced with high crime, political crime. Since unaccounted wealth was increasing and the tax paying population of India was extremely small, the Central Government had to find new sources of revenue. The upcoming Seventh Pay Commission would impose a huge financial burden on the economy and the One Rank One Pension introduced by the Modi Government would need a huge outlay. With tax revenue constant and expenditure increasing, the Government had necessarily to widen the tax net. The Finance Ministry under Arun Jaitley had imposed a number of measure, including amnesty for tax dodgers, but very little black money was disgorged. With one fell swoop the parallel economy was laid waste and this is a huge gain for India.

Second, the infrastructure projects needed investments and the flow of investment into India by way of foreign investment is not all that encouraging. A number of important projects like the High Speed Railway projects, the Sagar mala por project, the National Highway Scheme need funds and one way of freeing funds for infrastructural investment is to tap into the huge hordes of illegal wealth trapped within the country. It has been estimated that more than 250 lakh crores has now been freed and has flowed into the banking system. The Government wisely allowed hoarders of black money to deposit their illegal wealth in the banks and many did so thinking that once the banks have received the cash, black money is converted to white. Such financial alchemy was not on Modi's mind. The accounts in which monies have been deposited will now be investigated andit is hoped that with the GST rolling out from April this year, the tax base of the Government will also increase as the Government of India has to compensate the loss incurred by the states for a period of 5 years. Therefore, the objective of identifying potential tax payers has also been met.

There has been some criticism, especially the corrupt and criminal dynastic fascist party, the Congress about the demonetization policy. There was a major disruption in the financial sector in the wake of Modi's demonetization. The cash crunch caused a paralysis in the economy. Banks were restricted to a maximum payment of 2,000 rupees per individual. ATMs ran out of cash and many, nearly 59% of the cash machines have not been calibrated  to handle the new 500 and 2000 notes. Even till today cash withdrawal is restricted to 24,000 per account per week. This restriction was sold as an incentive to migrate to a digital economy with e payments and non material payments through credit/debit cards ect. However, the migration to a cashless economy is proving very difficult as internet access and literacy is limited.

The long queues at the banks did lead to needless suffering and at least 140 persons died while standing in bank queues. The opposition raised a hue and cry over this as though the corrupt dynastic fascists have ever been interested in the welfare of people. However, the situation ahs eased and now the queues in the banks is almost nonexistent.

Will this policy yield the desired political benefits. Though there was considerable difficulties, the ordinary India who is tired of the corruption and the venality have applauded the policy of Modi. It is no exaggeration to say that demonetization, though of limited economic success is a resounding political victory

Thursday, May 19, 2016

The Asssembly Polls and the Political Implications

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books The BJP led NDA Government was assailed by the Opposition on a number of issues. The Congress led by Rahul Gandhi tried to stir the youth into rebellion by fomenting trouble in different campuses following the suicide of Rohit Vemula in Hyderabad Central University. The rise of anti national pro secessionist hoodlums like Kannaiya in JNU stirred the Opposition for some time and men like D Raja, Sitaram, Karat and others could steal National Television exposure in which they could froth for hours on end about Modi. The fact remains that the Economy is picking up and inflation inlow though unemployment still remains a major concern. The Reserve Bank of India under Governor Raguhram Rajan is constantly increasing the interest rates thereby preventing industrial activity from picking up. Except for these minor glitches there seems to be order all around. The just concluded Assembly Elections in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam West Bengal and Pondicherry marks an important shift in Indian political spectrum. In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front consisting of the two Communist factions and a clutch of local parties has come to power. Significantly the vote share of both alliances has fallen and BJP's O Rajagopalan has won a seat in the Kerala Assembly for the first time. He is a senior leader of the BJP who served in the Vajpayee Cabinet. Even in the May 2014 Lok Sabha polls he led in 4 out of 7 assembly segments in Trvandrum and the Congress Party which fielded Sashi Tharoor who is in the news over the murder of his wife Sunanda, was able to scrape though only with a surge of support from the Catholic Church. The vote share of the BJP has crossed 12% and this means that the final frontier or bastion of anti BJP elements has been breached. In neighboring Tamil Nadu as I predicted in my tweet, AIADMK swept to power or rather proved the pollsters wrong by bucking the anti incumbency wave. The reason for AIADMK's success in spite of the lack luster administrative performance is beacause of the slew of populist measures undertaken by Jayalalithaa. The so called AMMA canteens, pharmacies and other such outfits have evoked a huge response from the electorate. The DMK which is neck deep in Corruption, with karunanidhi's daughter having spent time in jail due to the involvement in the 2G Spectrum Scandal along with A Raja tried to focus on the alleged corruption of Jayalalithaa. This diversionary tactic did not yield results and she romped home with a slightly diminished vote percentage. The triangular fight in Tamil Nadu certainly helped AIADMK as it split the anti incumbency vote and DDMK of Vijay Kanth came a cropper in the election. Stalin shrewdly tried to project the old Geezer as the Chif Ministerial candidate, but the electorate was not impressed with this ploy.And the feud in the dynastic fascist family did not help the DMK either as Azhagiri the elder son of Karunanidhi tacitly worked for the AIADMK. In West Bengal, mamta Banerjee survived the Sharada Chit Fund Scam and all the important names involved in the scam have been returned to the Assembly. This is not to say that the people of West Bengal do not care for the honesty and intergity of the political class. It is just that the memory of the 35 years of fascist Left rule is so terrible that even Mamth's scam tainted regime shines by comparison. The BJP has increased the vote base in West Bengal and has secured 9 seats. The release of the Netaji Files do not seem to have had a major impact in the election. The Alliance with the Congress has hurt the CPM as they now show sighs of terminal decline. Mamtha led a corrupt scam tainted Government but the people of West Bengal have no choice. In Assam, the Congress was playing with fire by encouraging illegal immigration from the neighboring Bangla Desh thereby hoping to create a captive elctoral blck for itself. The BJP campaigned against this subversion of the Constitution and even the local Assamese Muslims have voted for the BJP thereby disproving the theory that Muslims are afraid of voting the BJP. The Congress by fanning the flames of minority identity politics thought that the Muslim population of Assam and the marginalized tribal Bodos will vote for the Party. The fact is that BJP has won the Assemply elections in Assam and thereby acquiring a foothold in the North East. The BJP can now look forward to the Assembly elections in UP and Punjab that are due next year.

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Dadri Killing and the Liberal Reaction

A look at the world of politics, statecraft, diplomacy and books In Dadri, a suburb of New Delhi, located in the state of Uttar Pradesh a murder took place. A man suspected of killing a calf and eating its flesh was set upon by a furious mob and killed. This unfortunate incident took place when the state was ruled by the Samajwadi Party and the ruling Party at the Center, the BJP has nothing to do with the event. Yet, Azam Khan, better known for the alacrity with which the police of UP traced his missing buffaloes, made it a point to politisize the killing and insinuate that the BJP is general and one particular leader was responsible for the crime. The fact is that the Law and Order situation in UP is appalling and no one but the state Government can be blamed. First Azam Khan wrote a letter to the United Nations complaining of this incident. When India is trying to deal with the terror network sponsored by Pakistan, it is highly condemnable that a politician from the troubled state of UP should chose to write to the UN.The killing of the man was unfortunate. However instead of identifying the ral culprits, the state police sought to give a political spin and pin the blame on the BJP. Such mindless politicization of essentially criminal acts result in the real culprits escaping the long arms of the law as the police are more keen to help their political masters by providing fodder for the internecine wars between the so called "secular" alliance and the nationalists. Then the cry went out: Modi should speak. It defies logic to demand a statement from the Prime Minister whenever a petty crime takes place. Narendar Modi, like the US President made a routine statment condeming the killing. Whenever there is a white on black killing or there is mass shooting deaths in USA, President Barack Obama comes out with a statement. Do such statements reduce the number of killing. Apparently not. In the last decade or so there have been 18 reported instances of mass shootings in USA. Nobody demands the resignation of the President as if he is responsible for the crimes. Here the liberal Media,immediately gets into hyperactive mode and the Barkha Dutts and the Rajdeep Sardesais and the Karan Thapars come out of the woodwork to link the BJP with the crime. A few months back there were a spate of attacks on Christian religious institutions and the White countries lined up to condemn India as if the Government was responsbible for encouraging the attacks. It turned out that Bangladesh immigrants were responsible for the crimes and the liberal media did not report the facts. There is a law in place banning Cow Slaughter. Now the liberals encouraged by the white world are using this law to paint a picture of India as if the ban on cow slaughter is a symptom of religious fanaticism. We may say that all over the world the vegan movement is gaining strength and in India, beef consumption is taken as a sign of how "secular" one is. Rightly then gropus of people, armed and ready to protect Cattle from being slaughtered are gaining strength all over North India. Cow Protection Leagues are sprouting all over North India and cattle transporting trucks are stopped and the cattle freed. There is a law in place against the illegal killing of cows and that law is not being enforced. Therefore, people are taking the responsibility of enforcing the law into their own hands. One unfortunate fallout of the Dadri killing is that some octogenarian writers have started surrendering their state awards. Nyantara Sehgal who received the award 2 years after the biggest killing os Sikhs in 1984 by the goons associated with the Congress Party has suddenly found the virtue of secularism. Similarly another poet, Ashok Vajpayee has given up his award. It is time for the state to stop giving awards and later such awards become the basis for propaganda. Wriers have a right to dissent, but political correctness cannot be the basis of dissent.